As the saying goes, predictions are very hard, especially about the future. However, without tech predictions we wouldn't have famous gems like,
Thomas Watson in 1943 - "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers"
Bill Gates in 1981 - “No one will need more than 637 kilobytes of memory for a personal computer"
Sir Alan Sugar in 2005 - “Next Christmas the iPod will be dead, finished, gone, kaput”.
So, we have been busy this week digging through all the predictions looking for good thoughts on what we may or may not be talking about in 2011. To save you some time on this short work week, we put together a list of our top technology predictions for 2011. Enjoy!
Innovation Is back. OK, maybe it never left. But what's different this time is that some companies are attempting to codify the processes through which innovation can be nurtured. More important than ideas, which quite frankly are cheap, is the ability to pick which concepts are worthy of the heavy investment of time, money, and corporate mindshare required to take them to productization.
Expect to see a growth in offerings that bring advanced analytical capabilities to basic computers and mobile devices. Improvements in analytical interfaces, modeling techniques, MapReduce techniques and raw throughput will lead to more timely and accurate predictions. The field is still in its infancy, however, and companies will have to make significant investment in their operational infrastructure to find real benefits.
Business Services, as an entity and discipline, become more prevalent as businesses continue to seek out efficiencies as they recover from the recession. Business service management will be recognized as an avenue to gain an end-to-end perspective of how the business creates and delivers value efficiently and effectively to the customer. This line of sight drives increasing focus on how businesses organize and manage themselves.
You will build a private cloud, and it will fail. And this is a good thing. Because through this failure you will learn what it really takes to operate a cloud environment. Knowing this, your strategy should be to fail fast and fail quietly. Don’t take on a highly visible or wildly ambitious cloud effort. Start small, learn, iterate, and then expand
There are predictions that file capacity is going to outstrip all other data types in the data center in 2014 by a factor of 10-to-1. So, it's causing a lot of problems and a lot of issues out there. Instead of just throwing more and more storage at it, we have to have better tools that allow us to understand what we have stored from a file perspective -- what's dormant data, what's duplicate data, and how we can actually move data to lower tiers of storage for cost effectiveness and storage optimization.
The year of the better service level agreement (SLA): With all of the growth in cloud computing and third-party services, IT departments need to develop an understanding that SLAs are more than just fine print. A good SLA outlines the way that your enterprise interacts with IT vendors and service providers. In 2011, take time to review and improve both existing and new SLAs with an eye towards improving the level and quality of support and service provided. If you are not provided an adequate SLA, look elsewhere.
Step #1 of cloud deployment is figuring out how to get it up and running, and how to start processing user workloads. Naturally, provisioning and “orchestration” (in its various incarnations) have been the focus. As we really get into production, serving real users and enabling visibility, root cause analysis, capacity planning and SLA management become key. Operators will find that legacy tools and siloed approaches to analysis won’t cut it. Next generation monitoring vendors will get more airtime as these issues surface.